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KP Talks Dollars and Sense

KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

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KP Talks Dollars and Sense

Why Labor Data Could Matter More Than Inflation Reports

September 15, 2025 • Kevin Peranio • Season 4 • Episode 14

💥 Jobs Vanish, Rates Drop, and the Fed’s Next Big Move

Nearly a million jobs have quietly been erased in the latest QCEW report, signaling a labor market that’s far weaker than headline numbers suggest. At the same time, mortgage rates are improving, inflation is still sticky, and the Fed is stuck balancing hot CPI prints with cold labor data.

It’s the ultimate tug of war: shrinking money supply vs. wage pressure, soft small businesses vs. corporate giants, and a housing market suddenly catching a tailwind.

📉 With the Fed meeting around the corner, a 25 bp cut looks baked in — but the dot plot could reveal just how far they’re willing to go. And with tariffs, political battles, and bond traders pricing in weakness, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Episode Highlights:

00:00 – Jobs Report Shock: QCEW Wipes Out 911K Jobs
01:20 – Live from the Blend Forum: Industry Insights & Rainy Florida Vibes
02:06 – CPI & PPI Breakdown: What Inflation Data Really Means
03:20 – The 10-Year Treasury, Elon’s 4.20 Line, and Bond Market Signals
05:00 – Labor vs. Inflation: Why Job Losses Are the Bigger Story
07:00 – Trigger Lead Legislation: A Win for Brokers & Borrowers
09:10 – Kathy Wood’s Money Supply Warning & Labor Participation Trends
11:40 – Political Tensions: Fed Governors, Tariffs & Market Reactions
13:20 – Dot Plot Preview: Fed’s Next Move and Market Expectations
15:30 – Mortgage Tailwinds: Rates Ease, Housing Demand Stirs
17:40 – KP’s Closing Take: Community, Resilience & the American Dream

🎧 Stay smart. Stay ready. Stay informed.
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Kevin Peranio

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