Mortgage Payments Are Dropping — Here’s What’s Next Artwork

KP Talks Dollars and Sense

KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

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KP Talks Dollars and Sense

Mortgage Payments Are Dropping — Here’s What’s Next

December 15, 2025 • Kevin Peranio • Season 4 • Episode 27

The Fog Lifts: Fed Cuts, Falling Rates, and Mortgage Momentum

From Corona, California, KP breaks down a pivotal Fed week where long-delayed data finally comes into focus. With inflation trending lower, labor showing signs of softening, and the Fed delivering a hawkish cut paired with a more dovish tone, this episode connects the dots between monetary policy, liquidity, and what it all means for mortgage rates, housing demand, and the road to 2026.

KP dives deep into the “plumbing” of the economy—Core PCE, the dot plot, SOMA, balance sheet mechanics, and why liquidity matters just as much as rate cuts. You’ll also hear how falling monthly mortgage payments, improving spreads, and stabilizing rates are changing borrower psychology, setting the stage for a stronger spring purchase season.

The episode also explores big-picture tailwinds: AI-driven productivity, capital spending from Big Tech, sector outlooks, regulatory shifts in LO comp and FHA, and why healthcare, financials, and industrials could outperform. Plus, KP shares market insights, a personal Nvidia bet, and what lenders should be doing now to prepare for the next growth cycle.

Episode Highlights:
00:00 - KP checks in from Corona, CA & why the data fog is finally clearing
00:00 - Why markets stayed range-bound after the Fed rate cut
5:19 - SOMA, liquidity, and “stealth QE” explained
7:02 - AI, Nvidia, Big Tech spending & productivity gains
8:31 - Core PCE, inflation trends, & why the Fed had room to cut
9:33 - Core PCE Down & monthly payments trending lower
10:41 -Purchase Demand and Refinancing Activity
12:01 - The “fog of data” and borrower psychology heading into spring
13:16 - Regulatory tailwinds & small-dollar loans
13:26 - LO comp setup and FHA monthly premium
15:38 - KP checks in from Corona, CA and The 10-year Treasury range and the “Snoop Dogg line”
16:25 - Hawkish cut, dovish press conference & reading the dot plot
17:40 - Job openings and what labor data is really signaling
22:05 - Inflation Concerns Rising and Q1 Impacts Explained
24:15 - Shelter Component of Inflation coming down
25:30 - What clearer data means for rates ahead
29:30 - Final take on the Fed, expectations, and next moves

Stay focused. Stay data-driven. Stay ready.
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Kevin Peranio

Host