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KP Talks Dollars and Sense

KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

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KP Talks Dollars and Sense

Markets on Edge: Oil, War, and the Fight Between Inflation and Slow Growth

April 13, 2026 • Kevin Peranio • Season 5 • Episode 1

0:00 | 18:35

Oil Shocks, Market Volatility, and Housing Strength: Navigating Uncertainty

From Corona to Newport Beach, California, KP checks in during a week shaped by geopolitical tension, oil supply risks, and shifting economic signals. With global focus on key shipping routes and the potential for prolonged conflict, markets are reacting in real time, driving volatility across bonds, rates, and commodities.

In this episode, KP breaks down how disruptions tied to critical oil passages could impact up to 20% of global supply, and why even temporary instability is enough to rattle markets. He explains how oil shocks historically ripple through inflation, consumer spending, and economic growth—and why a prolonged conflict remains the biggest risk, even if it’s unlikely.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve faces a complicated backdrop. Inflation readings are coming in hot, job growth is slowing, and concerns around stagflation are beginning to surface. KP walks through what the latest data, from PCE and CPI expectations to Treasury yield movements, means for interest rates and the broader economy.

Despite the uncertainty, there are bright spots.

Housing and mortgage activity are showing resilience, with strong purchase demand and one of the best lending months since the pandemic. KP shares insights from industry data and conversations with market leaders, highlighting cautious optimism even as volatility in rates continues.

But the story is far from simple.

From global negotiations and shifting alliances to labor market trends and consumer behavior, KP connects the dots across a rapidly evolving economic landscape. He also reflects on the psychological side of markets, how fear, uncertainty, and our “lizard brain” influence decision-making during times like these.

Episode Highlights:
00:00 – Geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty
01:00 – Oil supply risks and global economic impact
02:30 – Worst-case scenario: prolonged conflict and market fallout
04:00 – How oil prices affect inflation and consumer behavior
05:40 – Treasury yields, volatility, and mortgage rate spreads
07:00 – Strong housing data and lending activity trends
08:40 – Inflation reports: PCE, CPI, and what’s ahead
10:00 – Labor market signals and slowing job growth
11:30 – Stagflation concerns enter the conversation
13:00 – Global negotiations and shifting geopolitical dynamics
15:00 – Market psychology: fear, uncertainty, and decision-making
16:30 – Stock market levels and earnings season outlook
18:00 – Industry optimism despite macro challenges
19:00 – What to watch next in oil, rates, and global events

In a world where geopolitics, energy, and economics are tightly connected, understanding these moving pieces is key to staying informed and prepared.

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#Economy #OilMarkets #Inflation #HousingMarket #InterestRates #FederalReserve #GlobalEconomy #FinancePodcast #MarketVolatility #KPTalks

Kevin Peranio

Host